Cyber threats are maturing fast, and 2026 will reward small businesses that get proactive about identity protection, employee training, and resilient operations. Below is a practical, no‑fluff outlook written for owners and operators who wear multiple hats—and need a clear plan that fits real‑world budgets.
TL;DR
- Expect more realistic phishing and impersonation using AI audio/video, plus a continued rise in targeted ransomware and business email compromise.
- Attackers increasingly abuse legitimate accounts—so identity, MFA, and endpoint hygiene are your front line.
- Pair a lightweight framework (NIST CSF 2.0) with a 90‑day action plan to close the biggest gaps first.
6 trends SMBs should plan for in 2026
1) AI‑driven phishing, deepfakes, and impersonation
Expect fewer typos and more “perfect” emails, voice notes, and even live video calls that convincingly mimic executives or vendors. These attacks are designed to bypass traditional filters and pressure staff into urgent payments or data access.
What to do now: Establish a no‑exceptions out‑of‑band verification rule for money movement and sensitive access. Train staff with real examples and implement role‑based phishing simulations. Add anomaly‑based email and endpoint detection where possible.
2) Ransomware-as-a-Service and double extortion
Affiliates can now rent turnkey ransomware kits and target SMBs with precision. Beyond encrypting files, criminals increasingly steal data first—and then threaten to leak it if you don’t pay.
What to do now: Follow a 3‑2‑1 backup strategy with periodic offline backups and verified test restores. Patch internet‑facing systems rapidly, especially remote access. Segment critical servers and restrict lateral movement.
3) Identity is the new perimeter
Most compromises start with valid logins (stolen, guessed, or phished). MFA matters—but expect fatigue and push‑spam attacks that trick users into approving prompts.
What to do now: Enforce phishing‑resistant MFA (FIDO2/security keys or platform passkeys) for email, finance, and admin tools first. Minimize standing admin rights; adopt just‑in‑time access for IT tasks.
4) Cloud and SaaS misconfigurations
As more work moves to Microsoft 365, Google Workspace, and line‑of‑business SaaS, simple misconfigurations (exposed shares, overly broad roles, public links) are driving incidents.
What to do now: Run a quarterly SaaS permissions review, disable legacy auth, enforce conditional access, and turn on activity logging/alerting in your core platforms.
5) Vendor and supply‑chain risk
SMBs often inherit risk from IT vendors, accountants, and marketing platforms. A single compromised vendor account can pivot into your environment.
What to do now: Require MFA from vendors, restrict their access to least privilege, and document offboarding steps for third‑party accounts.
6) Insurance and customer demands
Renewals increasingly require proof of controls like MFA, backups, EDR, and incident response plans. Customers are asking similar questions in security questionnaires.
What to do now: Treat these as a minimum control baseline and keep a living evidence folder (screenshots, policies, test‑restore logs) to speed renewals and sales cycles.
A pragmatic 90‑day action plan
- Week 1–2: Turn on MFA everywhere it’s offered; prioritize email, finance, and admin consoles. Move execs and IT to FIDO2 keys or passkeys.
- Week 2–3: Backups: enforce 3‑2‑1 with at least one offline copy; perform a test restore and document it.
- Week 3–4: Email hygiene: block auto‑forwarding, enable DKIM/DMARC, and deploy impersonation protection policies.
- Week 5–6: Access cleanup: remove stale accounts, revoke unused vendor access, and eliminate shared mailboxes where possible.
- Week 6–8: Endpoint baseline: ensure EDR on all company‑owned devices, enforce disk encryption, and auto‑patching with a 7‑day SLA for critical fixes.
- Week 8–10: Incident‑ready: create a one‑page IR plan (who to call, first 5 actions, decision thresholds), plus a tabletop drill.
- Week 10–12: Adopt a lightweight framework: map the above tasks to NIST CSF 2.0 outcomes and track them on a shared scorecard.
Pro tip for owners: Assign a “Security Program Manager” (doesn’t have to be IT) to own the checklist and report progress monthly. Culture beats tools.
Want help putting this into practice?
Full-Service Office Solutions specializes in right‑sized security for small businesses—endpoint protection, reliable backups, and secure network design—without enterprise complexity. Email to info@fullserviceofficesolutions.com to schedule a quick call, and we’ll tailor the 90‑day plan to your stack and budget.
